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, by Peter Zeihan
Download , by Peter Zeihan
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Product details
File Size: 43786 KB
Print Length: 361 pages
Publisher: Twelve (November 4, 2014)
Publication Date: November 4, 2014
Sold by: Hachette Book Group
Language: English
ASIN: B00JJ322NC
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I read this book just after Reading World Order by Henry Kissinger. Kissinger's book covers the current challenges of the geopolitical landscape, outlining above all the historical and cultural context in which the US and other major powers find themselves. Well, this book offers a similar analysis of the current scene, but although not exclusively, it's main focus is on the geographical, military and some other aspects, mostly the physical resources which define the sources and limits of power for major countries. In the author's view, the US, with unequalled geographic and physical resources is the country which calls the shots in the modern world. The real game-changer is the recent discovery of shale oil in the US wich will give it energy Independence, and will reduce the need for protecting the world's major sea-lanes necessary for world trade to prosper. Up to now it has been in the interest of the US to promote and protect world trade, but that is no longer the case. This means that many countries with lesser resouces as the US ( e.g. Germany, China ) will face serious challenges in retaining their power without the backing of the US navy and enforcement of order. The author points out the countries most vulnerable under the expected new regime, and their alternatives. While I certainly found the book great reading and full of interesting facts and figures, I felt it a little too one-dimensional: i.e. too reliant on geographical, economic, dempographic and physical resources to explain the potential evolution of modern geopolitics. This view is rather deterministic: as if these factors would logically induce countries to act according to their existing natural strengths without other considerations. The historical and cultural aspects stressed by Kissinger, as well as the capacity for shifting alliances, treaties and use of "soft power" ( which the US also posseses abundantly ) . The book also gives little place to the role of modern technology in shaping the world. I am doubtful about the central tenet of Keizan's thesis: that the US would withdraw significantly from policing the major sea-lanes. Even if self-sufficient in almost everything, the US needs to maintain a strong presence everywhere. Kissinger in his book stresses that if the US does not do this it could easily end up as a big island off Eurasia, with little influence in shaping events outside its sphere.and which sooner or later would have serious reverberations on the North-American continent. Having said this, the book is still very good: it brings to light many basic aspects of geography and resources which we usually don't think about in the age of intercontinental ballistic missiles, hi-tech weapons and space exploration, but which are still hugely important in shaping the world. Also, the author manages to build up a very convincing picture of the potential unfolding of the world over the coming decades if countries act according to their geography, their demographic, physical and economic resources, above all, if the US removes its protection of free trade. These factors will bestow unusual power on some, especally the US, and reveal serious vulnerabilities in others, especially countries whose prowess we today consider almost unassailable.
This book was highly educational as well as fun to read, although many of the conclusions and predictions about future world events seem unlikely or suspect. To begin with, I had heard only vaguely about Bretton Woods and never about the U.S. assurance in 1944 that the safety of the world's sea lanes would be guaranteed by our navy. Sounds like a brash promise for one nation to make, especially in the middle of World War II, although Hitler was on the run by then and Japan was getting ready for a suicidal defense of its homeland if the Americans invaded. I learned a LOT about geography (a much-neglected subject in American schools), especially about the importance of river systems, and deep sea ports for countries that would prosper and, eventually, dominate. One could go on for pages praising this book, but this reader has one major nit-pick about a topic the author ignored: the role of climate change (the U.S. is already experiencing its damages, as our bread basket areas of California and the midwest/great plains are suffering increasing drought and subsequent lowered production). If it continues, our natural geographical advantages will wither as we struggle to provide adequate food for our citizens and for much of the world. I also wonder about the effects of increasing terrorism around the world, but It's probably asking too much for a book essentially about geography to cover such a topic. If I were a citizen of Russia, China, Brazil, or India, I would shudder reading the author's predictions about the future prospects of my country. In fact, that comment applies to much of the earth other than the U.S. and a few other countries, some of them surprising. In any event, this is a great, fun read, and I recommend it highly.
The author makes some bold calls based on geographic and ethnic considerations. Whether Russia will disintegrate or Turkey will become a regional power is anybody's guess. As we speak, Turkey faces a major economic crisis and seems to be leaning for help away from its traditional allies.Will the Eurozone break up as he predicts? The Euro has been largely a peace project and the benefits have been enormous when we consider closer European integration during an unprecedented 70 years of peace in Europe.The author lists the geographical, natural resources arguments that make the USA have a comparative advantage. However, does the USA desire to become an island simply because it can?I give it to the author that he sticks his neck out and tries to rationalize his predictions. We do not know whether these will come to pass and so I give it a 3 based on the arguments rather the outcomes. Some predictions have been wrong already.
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